Often global warming is seen as a process similar to a steady flow of water in our bathrooms and kitchens, where temperature goes up gradually, controlled by a turn of the tap.
But the report ‘Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector’ documents that changes related to global warming are likely to be much more abrupt and unpredictable – and they could create huge social and environmental problems and cost the world hundreds of billions of dollars.
Without immediate climate action, sea level rise on the East Coast of the USA, the shift to an arid climate in California, disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon in India and Nepal or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest due to increasing drought, are likely to affect hundreds millions of people and cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
The study explores impacts of these “tipping points,” including their economic consequences and implications for the insurance sector. It also shows how close the world is to reaching “tipping points” in many regions of the world, or how close we are to tipping the scales toward disaster.
“If we don’t take immediate action against climate change, we are in grave danger of disruptive and devastating changes,” said Kim Carstensen, the Head of WWF Global Climate Initiative. “Reaching a tipping point means losing something forever. This must be a strong argument for world leaders to agree a strong and binding climate deal in Copenhagen in December.
According to the report, carried out by the Tyndall Centre, the impacts of passing “Tipping Points” on the livelihood of people and economic assets have been underestimated so far. The report focuses on regions and phenomena where such events might be expected to cause significant impacts within the first half of the century.
“As an insurer and investor, we must prepare our clients for these scenarios as long as we still have leeway for action,” says Clemens von Weichs, CEO of Allianz Reinsurance. “Setting premiums risk-appropriately and sustainably is of vital interest to everyone involved, because this is the only way to ensure that coverage solutions will continue to exist.”
Allianz intends to address climate change by entering into dialogue with its clients at an early date. This will allow it to point out countermeasures in a timely way, and work together to develop specific coverage concepts, whether for existing assets or for future climate-compatible projects like alternative energy and water supply concepts, dyke construction, or protection against failed harvests.
Global temperatures have already risen by at least 0.7 degrees Celsius. Global warming above 2-3 degrees in the second half of the century is likely unless strong extremely radical and determined efforts towards deep cuts in emissions are put in place before 2015.
The melting of the Greenland (GIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Shield (WAIS) could lead to a Tipping Point scenario, possibly a sea level rise of up to 0.5 meters by 2050. This is estimated to increase the value of assets at threat in all 136 global port mega-cities by around 25.000 billion USD.
On the North-eastern coast of the USA and due to a localized anomaly, the sea level could rise up to 0.65 meters, increasing the asset exposure from 1.350 to about 7.400 billion USD
The South Western Part of the USA, namely California, is likely to be affected by droughts and levels of aridity similar to the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. The annual damages caused by wildfires could be tenfold compared to today’s costs and could reach up to 2.5 billion USD per year by 2050 increasing to up to 14 billion by 2085.
70 percent of working population may be put at risk by droughts in India. The future costs of droughts are expected to rise to approx. 40 billion USD per decade until the middle of the century.
In a tipping point scenario, dieback of the Amazon Rainforest could reach 70% by the end of the century as a consequence of a significant increase in the frequency of droughts in the Amazon basin. The impacts include loss of biodiversity and massive carbon release. Costs could reach up to 9.000 billion USD for a surface of around 4 million square kilometers.
“The Tipping Points report shows how quickly we are approaching dangerous and irreversible levels of global warming,” Carstensen said. “Economic consequences of passing the climate tipping points are absolutely overwhelming.”
“There is still a chance to avoid the worst and this report shows how urgent it is to act immediately. A strong climate agreement in Copenhagen in December is the best, if not the only chance to prevent the worst impacts of devastating climate change.”
Today’s insurance industry has learned lessons from its experiences after major losses caused by hurricanes like Andrew (1992), Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005). Better models will help people understand the frequency and strength of natural disasters. “But good models will not be enough to protect the climate,” explains Michael Bruch, of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, the Allianz Group’s industrial insurer. “The human component is playing an ever-increasing role in reducing the risk from natural disasters, in terms of both risk management and combating the human causes of climate change.”
WWF researchers have teamed up with national park rangers using two detection dogs from the United States to determine the population status of the Javan rhinos in the forests of southern Vietnam, home to one of the world’s last two remaining populations of the species.
Javan rhino (Rhinoceros sondaicus annamiticus) were thought to be extinct on mainland Southeast Asia until hunters in Vietnam killed an individual rhino in 1988. It is believed less than ten remain, but no conclusive survey has ever been conducted to verify this.
“The Javan rhino is possibly the rarest large mammal on Earth,” said Sarah Brook, leader of the WWF rhino project in Vietnam. “This field survey aims to reveal the secrets of Vietnam’s little known Javan rhino population in an effort to save it from extinction.”
Samples of the dung will be sent to Queen’s University in Canada where DNA analysis will detect the sex and number of animals. The Zoological Society of London will carry out a hormone analysis to show the animal’s breeding capability.
After just five days of surveying the area, seven rhino dung samples have been found. These specimens have given the project team confidence that they will be able to gather all the necessary scientific information. The results of these analyses will be used to formulate an urgent rhino conservation plan.
“The rhino is not only a rare animal unique to this country, but protecting the rhino is a flagship for conservation efforts in Vietnam,” said Hien Tran Minh, Country Director for WWF Vietnam. “If we lose the rhino the future does not look good for Vietnam’s other rare and endemic species.”
The Javan rhino is a highly valued commodity in the illegal wildlife trade, with the rhino horn, skin and faeces used for medicinal purposes. Habitat encroachment from agricultural expansion and planned hydropower development also pose increasing threats to this small population.
To improve protection for rhinos and other wildlife threatened by poachers, WWF in collaboration with the Asian Rhino project is supporting local communities to join the Forest Protection Department and national parks staff.
‘Rhinomania’, a blog written by the WWF team, will keep the public up to date on the rhino survey as well as on life in the national park.
Brazil sets example on halting forest loss Brasilia, Brazil: The recent announcement by Brazil – one of the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases from deforestation - that it is adopting new emissions reduction targets could help steer negotiators in Copenhagen toward a stronger climate change deal.
Brazil’s top environment ministers said late last week the country is committing to an emission reduction target of between 36.1 and 38.9 percent by 2020. Brazil announced those figures only a day after saying new data showed the lowest deforestation rates in the Amazon in the past 21 years.
The new commitment can help unblock and steer climate negotiations toward a new global agreement in Copenhagen, which will be considered next month, said WWF-Brazil CEO Denise Hamú.
"As Brazil announces these figures, it moves from a situation where it merely holds developed countries to account to a situation where it can be a role model in the establishment of a new low-carbon development model for the world," Hamú said.
"It should be noted, however, that the data needs to be more detailed,” she said. “We are not sure which baseline scenario was used, that is, how the Brazilian government estimated Brazil's emission growth trends by the end of the next decade. Neither do we know how we will reach those targets.”
“No detailed information is available on all actions across the various industries and on our low-carbon plan of action. It is fundamental that all government policies be consistent with the announcement made today," Hamú said.
As far as international climate negotiations are concerned, Brazil now has a more legitimate case to demand a clearer financial support commitment from the developed nations for the establishment of adequate actions to adapt to the effects of global warming, according to WWF.
Data released by the Brazilian government earlier this month showed that the deforestation rate in the Amazon fell between August 2008 and July 2009. Overall, the deforested region is a 45 percent smaller than Amazon land cleared the previous year, or between August 2007 and July 2008.
This is the lowest rate of deforestation in the Amazon since record-keeping began in 2000, and down from a high of more than 27,000 square kms in 2004.
However, deforestation also must be reduced in other damaged forest areas in Brazil, such as in the Cerrado, according to WWF:
Despite conservation efforts, global deforestation continues at an alarming rate – 13 million hectares per year, or 36 football fields a minute. It generates almost 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and halting forest loss has been identified as one of the most cost-effective ways to keep the world out of the danger zone of runaway climate change.
Data shows illegal ivory trade on rise Cambridge, UK: The illicit trade in ivory, which has been increasing in volume since 2004, moved sharply upward in 2009, according to the latest analysis of seizure data in the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS).
ETIS, one of the two monitoring systems for elephants under CITES (the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) but managed by TRAFFIC, holds the world’s largest collection of elephant product seizure records.
The analysis, undertaken in advance of the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (CoP15) to CITES, was based upon 14,364 elephant product seizure records from 85 countries or territories since 1989, nearly 2,000 more records than the previous analysis, in 2007.
The remarkable surge in 2009 reflects a series of large-scale ivory seizure events that suggest increased involvement of organized crime syndicates in the trade, connecting African source countries with Asian end-use markets. The ETIS data indicate that such syndicates have become stronger and more active over the last decade.
There continues to be a highly significant correlation between large-scale domestic ivory markets in Asia and Africa and poor law enforcement, suggesting that illicit ivory trade flows typically follow a path to destinations where law enforcement is weak and markets function with little regulatory impediment.
Indeed, the rise in illicit trade in ivory indicates that implementation of a CITES “action plan for the control of trade in African elephant ivory,” the Convention’s principal vehicle for closing such unregulated and illicit domestic markets in Africa and Asia, has failed to drive any significant change over the last five years.
The ETIS analysis identifies Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Thailand as the three countries most heavily implicated in the global illicit ivory trade. Illegal trade involving each of these nations has been repeatedly singled out for priority attention since the first assessment in 2002, but they continue to feature as critical hotspots in the trade as sources, entrêpots and consumers of ivory.
Another nine countries and territories—Cameroon, Gabon and Mozambique in Africa and Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam in Asia—were also identified as important nodes in the illicit ivory trade.
China, which along with Japan was an approved destination of the legal, CITES-sanctioned one-off ivory sale in 2008, faces a persistent illegal trade challenge from Chinese nationals now based in Africa. Ongoing evidence highlights widespread involvement of overseas Chinese in the illicit procurement of ivory, a problem that needs to be addressed through an aggressive outreach and awareness initiative directed at Chinese communities living abroad.
The results are less clear-cut concerning the impacts of the CITES approved one-off ivory sales in 1999 and 2008.
Following the first such sale, in June 1999, there was a progressive decline in the illicit trade in ivory for five years, with no evidence to suggest that the sale had resulted in an increase in the illicit ivory trade globally.
After the second CITES-approved ivory sale, in late 2008, the results are unclear as to whether it has stimulated increase demand or whether it has simply coincided with an increase in supply that was already underway over the last four years. The collection of more data over an extended time period will throw further light on this vital issue.
The full ETIS report can be downloaded from the CITES website as document at http://www.cites.org/common/cop/15/doc/E15-44-01A.pdf
Atlantic bluefin trade ban now vital as tuna commission fails to take action again Porto de Galinhas, Brazil: The Atlantic tuna commission today came up with only inadequate or delayed actions to ensure the recovery of the eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna, global conservation organization WWF warned today. Saving the tuna will now depend largely on an international trade ban due to be discussed in March.
The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas today endorsed a proposal from its chair, the EU, Japan, Morocco and Tunisia to drop the 2010 eastern bluefin quota from 19,500 tonnes to 13,500 tonnes, still far too high to enable stock recovery.
A key study presented to ICCAT in Recife showed even a strictly enforced 8,000-tonne quota would have only a 50 per cent chance of achieving a recovery in eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna by 2023 and another ICCAT study showed only a total fishing halt yielded significant chances of the bluefin population to recover enough to no longer qualify for high-level trade restrictions by 2019.
It is now more than ever necessary for member countries of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to line up behind global trade restrictions on Atlantic bluefin tuna. CITES is to consider a Principality of Monaco proposal that bluefin be listed for the highest level of trade restrictions at a meeting in Doha next March.
“Today’s outcome is entirely unscientific – and entirely unacceptable,” said Dr Sergi Tudela, Head of Fisheries at WWF Mediterranean. “This reduction of allowable catch is not based on any particular scientific advice to recover the stock with high probability – it is just an arbitrary political measure and only for one year. Now more than ever WWF sees a global trade ban as the only hope for Atlantic bluefin.”
Dr Tudela said a new provision for a 2011 fishery closure if the fishery was detected as being at serious risk of collapse was difficult to reconcile with the scientific committee’s recent data that the stocks are already at less than 10-15 per cent than unfished levels. “The trends for bluefin tuna are very clear and we need to act on the forward view rather than the rear mirror view to avoid collapse,” Dr Tudela said.
WWF had lobbied the meeting for a fishing suspension and determined action against illegal fishing, estimated to considerably inflate the most recent (2008) catch estimates of 34,120 tonnes. During the Recife meeting almost all harvesting countries were formally identified by ICCAT for breaking its rules – like EU tuna fattening farms accepting fish without proper documentation.
The massive overcapacity of industrial fleets in the Mediterranean also continues to hamper conservation efforts, yet the problem remains insufficiently addressed by the tuna commission.
The season for industrial fishing for bluefin tuna with purse seine fleets was reduced from two months to one, but remains open during the peak of the spawning period of 15 May to 15 June when the tuna are most vulnerable. ICCAT also continued to ignore long-standing calls to establish sanctuaries in key bluefin tuna spawning grounds such as the Balearic Islands off Spain.
“Common sense says that a trade ban supported by a temporary fishing closure is currently what is needed for the recovery of Atlantic tuna,” Dr Tudela said. “To close the fishery is what ICCAT needed to do to save the tuna and to save its own reputation.”
Dr Tudela called on CITES member countries “not to be fooled by ICCAT’s promises to save Atlantic bluefin tuna in the coming years. We have seen too many empty promises in ICCAT’s forty years of not conserving tuna. The tuna commission has failed in the most crucial moment of its history – how can it be expected of anything better? Now is the time for action elsewhere”.
Adding more fuel to the compelling case of ICCAT’s overall failure, contracting parties endorsed a further two years of the use by Morocco of illegal driftnets to catch swordfish. The nets, known widely as ‘walls of death’, kill 4,000 dolphins and 25,000 sharks in Mediterranean waters every year.
Bans on driftnets are covered in a large array of international agreements dating back to 1992 and including the UN, ICCAT, the EU which is the main market for the Moroccan swordfish, and Morocco itself.
“This year all contracting parties talked of the need to restore ICCAT’s credibility, and to do so they endorse the slaughter of 50,000 more sharks and 8,000 dolphins, violating UN resolutions? It is beyond belief, and is one more proof of the total dysfunction of ICCAT as a serious fisheries management organization,” said Dr Tudela.
ICCAT was also unable to agree on substantial measures to protect vulnerable shark species.
Economists fail to account for ‘natural capital’ – report Gland, Switzerland: Many economists are failing to assess the value of their countries’ natural resources, putting billion’s of people’s well-being at risk and contributing to catastrophic species loss, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme report.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for National and International Policy Makers 2009 (TEEB), released today, states that governments must adopt better accounting systems that measure the true value of natural resources, and integrate them in government decision-making.
WWF welcomed the report, urging governments to heed the call to reform their economic policies to halt the destruction of natural resources.
“Governments need to pay attention to this report and start looking at nature in a more holistic way”, said WWF Director of Global and Regional Policy Gordon Shepherd, “With smarter approaches to economics this can change but right now we are paying for their ignorance.”
Investing in conservation, management and restoration of ecosystems will provide economic returns and services to society that outweigh the immediate monetary returns of unchecked use of natural resources, such as the clear-cutting of forests or overfishing, according to the report.
“We are running down our natural capital stock without understanding the value of what we are losing” the report states.
“Degradation of soils, air, water and biological resources can negatively impact on public health, food security, consumer choice and business opportunities. The rural poor, most dependent on the natural resource base, are often hardest hit,” according to the report.
“The problem is that economists do not give market prices for ecosystem services and biodiversity,” according to the study. “This means that the benefits we derive from these goods (often public in nature) are usually neglected or under-valued in decision-making.” “This in turn leads to actions that not only result in biodiversity loss, but also impact on human well-being.”
The report also makes several recommendations for policy-makers.
They include, for example, that policy must address reforming environmentally harmful subsidies – up to a third of which currently support fossil fuel use – and invest in ‘ecological infrastructure’. The latter “can provide cost-effective opportunities to meet policy objectives, such as increased resilience to climate change, reduced risk from natural hazards, and improved food and water security as a contribution to poverty alleviation.”
In addition, Shepherd said businesses must likewise re-evaluate their use of the natural resources on which they depend to ensure their long-term profits. In doing so, they can be part of the solution to current environmental crises, such as species loss and deforestation.
“Ultimately, this must be a wide-ranging effort to re-evaluate natural resources and it must involve everyone, including private industry, governments, international agreements like the Convention on Biological Diversity, and indigenous and local people,” said Shepherd. “It will take a concerted effort to make our planet healthy again.”
TEEB’s study on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity was launched by Germany and the European Commission in response to an earlier G8+5 Environment Ministers proposal to develop a global study on economics of biodiversity loss.
Asia governors call for forest focus in climate deal Singapore: Asian governors from forest-rich countries, gathering in Singapore on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting this week, are urging world leaders to place forests at the forefront of climate change discussions.
The participating governors, convened by the Asian Development Bank, are discussing compensation under the emerging global forest carbon market – including the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism – to support local development in their regions and protect forests.
Specifically, the Heart of Borneo (HoB) Initiative was raised as a prime example of the sort of action needed in the region to mitigate the effects of climate change.
The HoB was established in 2007 by joint declaration of the three Bornean governments - Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei - and commits to the preservation and sustainable development of around 240,000 km2 area of continuous forest in the Heart of Borneo.
Speaking at the meeting, Indonesia’s governor of central Kalimantan (on the island of Borneo), the Honourable Augustin Teras Narang, said:
“The Heart of Borneo Initiative is an opportunity to address climate change through REDD, sustainable forest management and payment for environmental services, but we need real incentives and equitable financing mechanisms to realise the ambitious goals of the Heart of Borneo.”
Large scale carbon-rich forest landscapes such as the Heart of Borneo can play a major role in achieving emission reduction targets while conserving and sustainably managing the forests of Borneo.
The Heart of Borneo is one of the most important centres of biodiversity with record rates of endemism. In addition, the tropical forest and important peatlands of the region hold significant amounts of carbon and play a vital role in mitigating global warming.
"The Heart of Borneo is a global treasure chest of ecosystem goods and services, but these life-sustaining functions are not valued or properly compensated,” said Adam J. Tomasek, WWF's Leader for the Heart of Borneo Initiative. “It is important that the bold commitments made by the three governments under the Heart of Borneo are met with new and viable financing mechanisms for large-scale forest conservation and sustainable management. Equitable compensation for REDD is not just a good idea, it is absolutely necessary,” he said.
At the closing reception, Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Haruhiko Kuroda highlighted the importance of initiatives such as REDD in addressing climate change.
“Addressing climate change, via reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation, is one of the central goals of the ADB,” he said.
The ADB and WWF are jointly supporting the Heart of Borneo initiative by mobilizing much needed financial and technical resources to deliver the goals agreed by the three Bornean governments.
Data released Thursday by the Brazilian government shows that the deforestation rate in the Amazon fell between August 2008 and July 2009. Overall, the deforested region is a 45 percent smaller than Amazon land cleared the previous year, or between August 2007 and July 2008.
This is the lowest rate of deforestation in the Amazon since record-keeping began in 2000, and down from a high of more than 27,000 square kms in 2004.
However, the Amazon did lose 7,008 square kms of forest this year, according to government officials and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who attended a ceremony Thursday to announce this year’s deforestation figures.
According to Denise Hamú, WWF-Brazil's CEO, although it is essential to recognize the efforts made by the federal and state governments as well as Brazilian society in general, further action is required.
"Deforestation needs to continue falling in a sustainable manner and must take place in other Brazilian biomes in addition to the Amazon, such as the Cerrado", she stated.
Hamú also said that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held in Copenhagen in December, will be a good opportunity for Brazil to defend the adoption of clear and ambitious emission reduction commitments by the participant countries.
"Deforestation numbers such as the ones showed today by President Lula strengthen Brazil's credentials to lead the climate negotiations and take the forefront in building a new development model for the world that respects the environment and the people", Hamú said.
Among the other biomes, the most critical situation is found in the Cerrado. While deforestation in the Amazon has finally fallen below 10,000 km2, in the Cerrado it surpasses 20,000 km2.
Despite conservation efforts, global deforestation continues at an alarming rate – 13 million hectares per year, or 36 football fields a minute. It generates almost 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and halting forest loss has been identified as one of the most cost-effective ways to keep the world out of the danger zone of runaway climate change.
According to Cláudio Maretti, WWF-Brazil's Conservation Director, apart from decreasing emissions caused by deforestation in the Amazon the country needs to work on achieving reductions in the industry and transport sectors, and especially in energy generation and transmission processes.
"After all, the planet urgently needs expressive greenhouse gas emission reductions", he said.
Positive efforts made by the Brazilian government that should be applied in other areas include: Creating and implementing protected areas, promoting sustainable forest management, restricting public credit for land grabbers and deforesters, and promoting land tenure regularization actions. Also important are efforts to minimize the impacts of large-scale infrastructure projects such as roads and dams.
In addition, Maretti said it is essential to implement a consistent payment mechanism for ecological services - which consists in compensating producers who conserve the standing forest.
Talk climate and money, not climate vs money, WWF tells APEC Singapore – Leaders gathering in Singapore for the APEC summit this weekend must commit to strong and ambitious climate actions if they want to achieve sustainable growth for their region and help their countries to avoid disastrous consequences of global warming.
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation – bringing together world leaders like US President Barack Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama – must look beyond the group’s usual areas of interest and focus on the common challenges posed by climate change.
“Solving problems of protectionism, trade zones, banks and exchange rates is very important, but what is all of this worth if the world slips into chaos because of devastating climate change?” said Kim Carstensen, Leader of the WWF Global Climate Initiative.
“APEC leaders must open their eyes and look into the real threats and challenges of this world and their region. We cannot talk about sustainable growth without solving the most intractable problem the planet is facing.”
UN climate talks are floundering due to attempts by some governments to lower expectations for a new treaty and efforts to delay the deal.
The production of a legally binding framework at Copenhagen together with an amended Kyoto Protocol will help secure the survival of countries, cultures and ecosystems and clear the way towards a low carbon economy.
“If APEC countries would tackle the climate crisis with the same rigor they showed in protecting their economies from the financial meltdown, the world wouldn’t have to worry about a lack of political will or insufficient levels of ambition in the UN climate talks”, said Carstensen.
“We urge APEC leaders to bring economic recovery and climate recovery in sync, so that money spent on keeping growth levels high also helps bringing emission levels down.”
In WWF’s view, the Pacific region should become a model of technology cooperation, where developed APEC countries assist their developing country partners with adaptation and mitigation, through clean technologies, financial support and capacity building.
“Many want the APEC region to become a free trade zone, but they should also exploit its potential as a clean tech zone”, said Carstensen.
“There is probably no better regional network of countries in the world for piloting smart concepts for technology cooperation like those discussed in the UN climate talks. To boost the international negotiations, we urgently need pioneers who show what’s possible and how to make it happen.”
